Taupō District Business Sentiment Report - September 2025

Summary

Business confidence in the Taupō District continues to strengthen, with 63% of businesses feeling confident about their outlook, the highest level in more than two years. Concern about their outlook has fallen to 13% of businesses, down from 21% in April and 29% last year.

Trading conditions have stabilised following a strong summer, and most businesses expect steady or improving performance over the next six months. Hiring intentions have nearly doubled since April, with 37% planning to increase staff, and confidence in the local economy remains notably stronger than views of the national outlook.

Key findings from the September 2025 survey include:

• Confidence: 63% confident in their business, up from 60% in April and 42% in September 2024.

• Demand and Performance: 55% report stable customer demand, 33% increased revenue, and 23% higher profitability.

• Growth Plans: 10% plan significant expansion, up from 3% in April, while 28% expect moderate growth.

• Workforce: 71% have the staff they need, but shortages have shifted from specialist skills to general labour gaps.

• Hiring: 37% expect to increase staffing, up from 19% in April.

• Local Economy: 47% expect improvement in Taupō’s economy in the next six months, compared with 38% expecting improvement nationally.

Top pressures for businesses are consumer demand, regulation, skill shortages, government uncertainty, and product costs. For the wider district, housing availability, crime, access to health services and inflation pressure are key concerns.

Businesses see opportunities centred around tourism recovery, geothermal and renewable energy development, technology adoption, and regional collaboration.

Most businesses see limited direct benefit from current government policies and call for simpler regulation, greater funding access, and stronger infrastructure investment. 57% of businesses feel their business voice is heard locally, though many want more transparent communication and visible action from engagement efforts.

Overall, Taupō District’s business community remains resilient and forward-looking. Confidence, employment intentions, and local economic outlook have all improved compared with a year ago, signalling a more stable foundation for growth heading into the summer period and 2026.

Business Confidence

Taupō District business confidence has risen, with 63% of respondents feeling confident about their business, up slightly from April and significantly higher than the 42% reported in September 2024. Only 13% say they are worried, the lowest level in over two years. This confidence reflects stabilising stable trading conditions, easing cost pressures, and optimism for summer.

Key Factors Impacting Businesses & Taupō District Economy

Respondents identified various factors likely to influence their Business and the Taupō District over the next six months. (% of businesses selecting each factor)

Consumer demand remains the top concern for businesses, reflecting continued caution in customer spending and trading activity. Regulatory burden has risen sharply, pointing to growing frustration with compliance processes and associated workload. Labour and skills shortages continue to limit growth as businesses look to expand but face staffing constraints. Uncertainty around government direction (not asked in April 2025) has become a key issue, signalling the need for clearer national policy and regional investment priorities. Material and product costs also remain a concern, reflecting tight financial conditions and ongoing supply-chain pressures.

Businesses said housing remains the most significant issue for the district, with affordability and availability continuing to constrain workforce attraction. Crime and antisocial behaviour has risen, reflecting growing concern around how this affects local trade. Health services have climbed in priority, linking access to healthcare with community wellbeing and economic resilience. Inflationary pressure has increased as a concern, reflecting its impact on household spending, business costs, and overall cost-of-living pressures.

Business Performance Insights

The following results summarise key changes in business performance compared with the previous six months, covering customer demand, revenue, profitability, growth expectations and business outlook for the next six months across the Taupō District.

Business Demand

Customer demand remained broadly stable through winter. 22% of businesses reported an increase in demand, down from 37% in April, while 55% experienced consistent demand levels, up from 40%. The proportion reporting weaker demand was unchanged at 23%. This shows activity has levelled off following the summer trading period, but overall stability has improved, and most businesses maintained their customer base through the winter months.

Revenue Performance

Revenue growth softened through winter, with 33% of businesses reporting increased revenue, down from 48% in April but ahead of the 24% recorded last September. Encouragingly, 30% of businesses reported stable revenue, suggesting consistent trading and improved resilience heading into summer.

Profitability Performance

23% of businesses reported improved profitability, compared with 52% in April, and matching September 2024 levels. 35% recorded a decline, down from 50% a year ago, and 32% maintained consistent profits, indicating improved cost control and stronger financial management through seasonal trading conditions.

Business Performance Expectations

Looking ahead, 48% expect revenue to increase and 35% anticipate consistent results over the next six months. Only 8% expect a revenue decline. Profitability expectations are similar, with 40% forecasting improvement and 10% expecting a decrease. Business expectations point to steady growth through the summer period.

Business Growth Expectations

10% plan significant growth in the next six months, up from 3% in April, while 28% expect moderate expansion. 42% plan to remain the same size and 13% are unsure. This shows a targeted confidence, as fewer businesses plan to expand, but those that do are approaching growth with clear intent.

Business Views on the New Zealand & Taupō District Economy

The following insights reflect how local businesses view current economic conditions and what they expect over the next six months for both the national and Taupō District economies.

New Zealand Economy

Business sentiment toward the national economy remains cautious. 44% of respondents believe the New Zealand economy is slowing, up from 31% in April, while 37% say it is standing still and only 19% of businesses see it in growth.

Over the next six months 38% of businesses expect the national economy to improve, 30% expect further deterioration and 28% anticipate little change. Overall sentiment remains cautious, the lift since April suggests more businesses anticipating gradual stabilisation rather than further decline.

Taupō District Economy

Views of the Taupō District economy are notably more positive than the national picture. 25% of businesses see the local economy in growth, 50% say it is standing still, and 20% believe it is slowing. These results are consistent with April and stronger than a year ago, when 42% saw the local economy slowing.

Looking ahead, 47% expect improvement in the next six months, 35% expect stability, and 15% anticipate a decline. Confidence in the local economy has lifted since April and continues to outpace views of the national outlook.

Staffing & Skills

71% of businesses report having the workforce they need, slightly below 74% in April. The overall number of staff shortages is similar, but the shortages have shifted from specialist skill gaps, down from 17% to 8% to general workforce shortages, up from 5% to 20%.

Looking ahead, 37% of businesses expect to increase staffing in the next six months, up from 19% in April, while 53% plan to maintain current levels and only 3% expect to downsize. These results indicate growing confidence and preparation for the summer trading season.

Recruitment & Workforce Challenges

Businesses continue to face recruitment and retention challenges linked to labour availability, housing, visa processes, and work readiness. Many report difficulty attracting applicants for entry-level, seasonal, and hospitality roles, while others struggle to find qualified technical and professional positions. The cost and availability of housing remains a major constraint, particularly for attracting staff from outside the district. Employers also highlighted visa delays and challenges finding candidates with strong reliability and work ethic, particularly among younger applicants. Some businesses reported retention challenges due to wage competition and the short-term nature of seasonal roles. 

Encouragingly, 37% are interested in partnering with schools or training providers to address future workforce needs, up from 33% in April.

Overall, workforce pressures reflect a combination of labour supply, housing, and training factors. Addressing these challenges will be critical to supporting business growth and long-term workforce stability in the district.

Business Opportunities

Taupō District businesses are optimistic about future growth, identifying key areas of opportunity alongside the support needed to achieve them.

• Tourism & Events: Businesses emphasised the need to grow shoulder-season visitation, rebuild international markets, and develop new attractions and events to sustain activity year-round.

• Collaboration & Local Partnerships: Collaboration across sectors was a common theme, with businesses seeing value in supporting local suppliers, building regional partnerships, and promoting Taupō collectively to strengthen the local economy.

• Geothermal & Renewable Energy: Taupō’s geothermal and renewable energy advantage continues to offer major long-term potential. Businesses expect upcoming projects to drive industrial expansion, housing development, and local supply-chain opportunities.

• Innovation & Population Growth: Respondents highlighted opportunities in technology, sustainability, and digital capability, as well as benefits from continued population and economic growth, which are expected to increase demand for local services and jobs.

To realise these opportunities, businesses identified a need for practical support focused on funding and capital access, networking and connections, destination marketing, and clearer engagement from council and government to enable business-friendly planning and infrastructure investment.

Government Support & Enablers

Businesses were asked about government policies, infrastructure, and services that help or hinder their operations, and what support would most benefit them. Most reported limited direct benefit, calling for simpler regulation, greater funding access, and stronger infrastructure investment.

Helpful Policies & Services

Several businesses identified positive contributions from Amplify initiatives, geothermal development, Love Taupō marketing, immigration improvements, and local events and consenting processes. However, most said current policies have little visible impact, with several noting that funding access and application processes remain complex.

Barriers & Hindrances

Many cited regulation, infrastructure disruption, and compliance costs as barriers to growth. Examples included RMA and lending changes, procurement processes favouring larger firms, rising levies, and local construction works affecting accessibility. Some also mentioned visa delays, slow policy change, and a lack of focus on small business realities.

Enabling Support

When asked what would most help, businesses most frequently mentioned:

• Financial support and investment

• Infrastructure projects (transport, digital, health, water)

• Regulatory reform and reduced compliance

• Tax relief for small businesses

• Workforce development and training

Business Advocacy & Representation

57% of businesses agree or strongly agree that their voice is being heard locally, while 43% disagree or strongly disagree. This shows a moderate level of confidence in local representation but also highlights that a significant proportion of businesses would like stronger engagement and visibility in decision-making.

Most businesses feel partially heard but want more transparent communication and visible outcomes from consultation. Feedback suggests that while there are opportunities to engage through surveys, networking events, and workshops, some respondents believe these forums could be more inclusive and better structured to encourage participation from a wider range of sectors.

Preferred Channels for Engagement

When asked how they would like their voice to be heard, businesses most frequently mentioned:

• Direct meetings and industry workshops

• Regular surveys and updates

• Sector-based collaboration groups

• Business networking events and site visits

Many respondents view direct engagement and practical discussion forums as the most effective ways to represent business interests.

Conclusion

The September 2025 Taupo District Business Sentiment Survey shows businesses are entering summer with stronger confidence and a sense of stability. Most report steady trading, improved cost control, and growing optimism for the months ahead. Workforce pressures, housing availability, and regulatory complexity remain key challenges, yet businesses continue to adapt through collaboration, innovation, and long-term planning. Opportunities in tourism, geothermal energy, and technology, supported by stronger infrastructure and local partnerships, are seen as central to sustaining future growth. Overall, the results reflect a business community that is resilient, forward-looking, and confident in Taupō’s economic potential.