Quarterly Economic Monitor September 2025
- Bryn Ingham
- 6 days ago
- 4 min read
Taupō’s economy is showing tentative signs of recovery after a deep recession. The local economy grew 0.2% in the September 2025 quarter compared to the same quarter last year, according to Infometrics provisional estimates. Over the full year, GDP declined 0.8%, a slightly worse outcome than the national decline of 0.5%pa.
A range of industries have contributed to the negative economic outcome over the year to September 2025. A slowdown in the construction industry was the largest contributor followed by mining, and forestry and logging which are facing their lowest export prices in a decade.
On the positive side much of Taupō’s rural economy has been growing, with agricultural output expanding 2% over the year to September 2025. We estimate the dairy payout in the current season to inject a record $478m into the local economy. By comparison the payout in the 2024 season was $361m. Over the year to September 2025 slaughter prices for lamb were up 31% and beef up 29%. However, forestry and logging is struggling with low prices.
Taupō’s population grew 0.9% over the year to June 2025, slightly higher than national growth of 0.7%. Growth was supported by births exceeding deaths (+160), net internal migration (+150), and net international migration (+140).
A growing population has supported the demand for accommodation in a buoyant housing market. The number of houses sold in the year to September 2025 increased 27% and new listings edged up further. House values have been creeping up with the average value in the September 2025 quarter a touch off $750,000, its highest level since June 2022. The residential building sector is responding to higher prices with the number of new dwelling consents reaching 98 in the September quarter, well above the 10-year average of 85.
Many of Taupō’s social indicators have been improving. School attendance rates reached 50% over the year to September 2025, up from a low of 37.1% in December 2022. Gaming machine profits have been on a downward trajectory since September 2023. Taupō’s crime rate has dropped from a recent peak of 489 criminal proceedings per 10,000 population over the year to June 2024 to 415 over the year to September 2025.
Gross Domestic Product
GDP in Taupo District was provisionally down 0.8% for the year to September 2025, compared to a year earlier. The decline was greater than in New Zealand (0.5%). Provisional GDP was $3,343 million in Taupo District for the year to September 2025 (2024 prices).
Business Counts
The number of business units in Taupo District was up 1.8% for the year to September 2025, compared to a year earlier. Growth was higher than in New Zealand (1.0%).
The number of business units in Taupo District reached an annual average of 5,770 in the year to September 2025, up from 5,670 in the previous 12 months.
Consumer Spending
Electronic card consumer spending in Taupo District as measured by Marketview, increased by 0.3% over the year to September 2025, compared to a year earlier. This compares with a decrease of 0.8% in New Zealand.
Guest Nights
Total guest nights in Taupo District decreased by 1.6% in the year to September 2025, compared to a year earlier. This compares with an increase of 1.7% in New Zealand.
Visitors stayed a total of 1,413,400 nights in Taupo District during the year to September 2025, which was down from 1,436,900 a year ago.
Dairy Payout
Taupo District total dairy payout for the 2023/2024 season is estimated to have been approximately $361 million. Taupo District's dairy payout for the 2024/2025 season is expected to be approximately $482 million, $121 million higher than last season, assuming that production levels from last season are maintained.
Labour Market Indicators
Employment for residents living in Taupo District was down 2% for the year to September 2025, compared to a year earlier. The decline was greater than in New Zealand (1.4%). An average of 17,594 people living in Taupo District were employed in the year to September 2025.
Jobseeker Support recipients in Taupo District in the year to September 2025 increased by 10.3% compared to a year earlier. Growth was higher than in New Zealand (10.0%). An average of 1,672 people were receiving a Jobseeker Support benefit in Taupo District in the 12 months ending September 2025. This compares with the ten year annual average of 1,224.
The annual average unemployment rate in Taupo District was 4.7% in the year to September 2025, up from 4.1% in the previous 12 months. In the year to September 2025, the annual average unemployment rate in Taupo District was lower than in New Zealand (5.2%).
The annual average NEET rate in Taupo District was 13.6% in the year to September 2025, up from 13.1% in the previous 12 months. In the year to September 2025, the annual average NEET rate in Taupo District was higher than in New Zealand (13.3%).
You can read the full report below including residential & non-residential consents, house values & sales, vehicle registrations and more.
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