Quarterly Economic Monitor March 2025

Infometrics provisionally estimates that the Taupō economy contracted 1.4% over the year to March 2025. On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted in each of the past four quarters, contracting 2.1%pa in the March 2025 quarter. The slowdown has been felt across many industries, particularly construction, electricity, forestry, retail trade, and accommodation and food services.

The recovery in tourism has faltered with total tourism expenditure declining 1.6% over the year to March 2025. Domestic tourism spending, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of total tourism spending, was down 5.6%, while international tourism spending has also turned negative, declining 1.6%. Guest nights were down 6.7% over the year.

An improving rural sector partially offset the decline in other industries. Taupō’s agriculture industry has been boosted by a 29% lift in global prices for our meat exports and 25% for dairy products. The lower exchange rate has further boosted NZ-dollar prices. Infometrics expects the dairy payout in Taupō in the 2024/25 season to reach $473m which will inject an extra $112m into the local economy compared with the 2023/24 season.

A 1.4% fall in employment of Taupō residents over the year to March 2025 is indicative of broader economic weakness with employment falling across a broad range of industries. Weak labour market conditions have seen the district’s unemployment rate edge up to 4.5% over the year to March 2025. The NEET rate (proportion of young people aged 15-24 that are not in education, employment or training) has also been tracking upwards, reaching 14% over the year to March 2025. Young people bear the brunt of a weaker labour market, as they are highly exposed to industries affected by lower discretionary spending such as retail, hospitality and construction.

The number of properties available on the Taupō market has been climbing as households under mortgage stress have been forced to sell up. The number of new real estate listings was up 8.7% over the year to March 2025 and sales were up 16%. The plentiful supply of properties has kept a lid on prices, with the average value declining 1.0%pa in the March 2025 quarter to $761,000. Despite the tough economic environment, the average rent was up 5.8% over the year keeping rents at a very unaffordable level relative to the national average.

Gross Domestic Product

GDP in Taupō District was provisionally down 1.4% for the year to March 2025, compared to a year earlier. The decline was greater than in New Zealand (1.1%).

Provisional GDP was $3,352 million in Taupō District for the year to March 2025 (2024 prices).

Business Counts

The number of business units in Taupō District was up 2.7% for the year to March 2025, compared to a year earlier. Growth was higher than in New Zealand (1.2%).

The number of business units in Taupō District reached an annual average of 5,732 in the year to March 2025, up from 5,582 in the previous 12 months.

Consumer Spending

Electronic card consumer spending in Taupō District as measured by Marketview, decreased by 0.4% over the year to March 2025, compared to a year earlier. This compares with a decrease of 1.4% in New Zealand.

Tourism Expenditure

Total tourism expenditure in Taupō District decreased by 1.6% in the year to March 2025,compared to a year earlier. This compares with no change in New Zealand.

Total tourism expenditure was approximately $776 million in Taupo District during the year to March 2025, which was down from $789 million a year ago.

Guest Nights

Total guest nights in Taupo District decreased by 6.7% in the year to March 2025, compared to a year earlier. This compares with a decrease of 2.7% in New Zealand.

Visitors stayed a total of 1,398,000 nights in Taupo District during the year to March 2025, which was down from 1,498,400 a year ago.

Labour Market Indicators

• Employment for residents living in Taupō District was down 1.4% for the year to March 2025, compared to a year earlier. The decline was greater than in New Zealand (0.9%). An average of 17,774 people living in Taupo District were employed in the year to March 2025.

• Jobseeker Support recipients in Taupō District in the year to March 2025 increased by 15.1% compared to a year earlier. Growth was higher than in New Zealand (12.6%). An average of 1,628 people were receiving a Jobseeker Support benefit in Taupo District in the12 months ending March 2025. This compares with the ten year annual average of 1,184.

• The annual average unemployment rate in Taupo District was 4.5% in the year to March 2025, up from 3.6% in the previous 12 months. In the year to March 2025, the annual average unemployment rate in Taupo District was lower than in New Zealand (4.9%).

• The annual average NEET rate in Taupo District was 13.6% in the year to March 2025, up from 12.7% in the previous 12 months. In the year to March 2025, the annual average NEET rate in Taupo District was higher than in New Zealand (12.9%).

You can read the full report below including dairy payout, residential & non-residential consents, house values & sales, vehicle registrations and more.

Infometrics QEM - Taupo March 2025.pdf

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